Outlier Player Prop & Betting Tools

Line Movement: A Definitive Guide for Your 2023 Sports Betting Strategy

The sportsbook may initially set the opening line for the Yankees to win at -200. However, if, just before the opening pitch, it is announced that Aaron Judge will not be in the batting order for the Yankees, the sportsbook may adjust the odds to +150 for the Yankees to win. You can visit OddsTrader to learn more about sports betting odds. Our in-depth guides teach you how to read American odds, decimal odds and fractional odds.

As is the case with most aspects of sports betting, capitalizing on line movement depends on luck and timing. You can research and prepare ahead of time, but even thorough research can still let you down. Furthermore, inclement weather tends to lead to lower-scoring competitions regardless of the sport. Temperature extremes, high winds, and/or precipitation can all come into play and lead to betting line shifts.

An inflated favorite line indicates a lot of public play, so a good strategy is to bet the opposite way. And in many cases, you’ll find that most casual bettors don’t bother with much other than gut feelings and favorites when making a bet, and line movements reflect this. Because action favors favorites, their lines inflate throughout the week.

How are sports betting odds determined?

With the rise of online sportsbooks and the legalization of sports betting across many states, odds are no longer exclusive to Vegas. Major sportsbooks now operate nationwide, often adjusting their lines independently or using odds from other sources, not just Las Vegas. Bets in sports betting come in various forms, generally focused on picking winners, predicting score margins, or anticipating total points. Some bets involve combining multiple outcomes for higher rewards, while others target specific in-game events or achievements. Each type offers a unique blend of risk and reward, catering to different betting strategies and preferences.

• This is done by changing the payout odds or shifting the point spread or total.
• For further details, click on the arrow to launch a popup window that includes the line forecast, confidence level and a line history chart detailing the game’s previous movement.
• The goal for a sportsbook isn’t necessarily to predict the exact outcome, but to balance the betting action on both sides and protect their profit.
• Before a matchup begins, we capture each sportsbook’s betting lines every 30 seconds.
• Our betting systems are developed by a team of “propeller heads”; economists, PhDs and CFAs, not salesmen.

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Key numbers are less influential in betting on basketball, but they do exist. Furthermore, sportsbooks are likely to not worry about those numbers when they move the spread so they are easier to pick up. Just like line movement in general, the key skills involved in live betting line movement are being able to read momentum and timing your bets. However, it is worth repeating that live betting is just a lot more unpredictable in general compared with line movement before the game.

For further details, click on the arrow to launch a popup window that includes the line forecast, confidence level and a line history chart detailing the game’s previous movement. If you or anyone you know has gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be used by calling GAMBLER. Our editorial team is run by individuals with many years of experience in digital publishing, editorial, and content production. Our editorial content strives to be highly informative and educational to our audience, especially for visitors who are new or relatively new to analyzing and predicting sporting event results. stake All of our content is created by informed writers with backgrounds in their subject area and reviewed for omissions or mistakes.

When the game finished to the Steelers many sportsbooks had one of the worst days in history as bettors won big on both sides. For now, just be aware that sportsbooks will be reluctant to move the lines onto key numbers, such as +3 in the NFL. If you see a spread moving on or off a key number, it is worth considering how this could affect a bet. If you notice the numbers in a point spread bet getting higher over time (ie, more points between the teams), it means the majority of money is being placed on the favorite. If the numbers are getting lower, the majority of the money is going on the underdog.

Let’s go back to our Yankees vs. Red Sox example and assume the sportsbook initially set the odds for the Yankees to win at -200. If a large number of bettors place wagers on the Yankees to win, the sportsbook might be forced to adjust the odds in order to balance the money wagered on each side of the bet. Sports betting lines move for a variety of reasons including changes in the expected performance of teams or players and in response to market forces. A reverse line movement tracker is a powerful tool that helps bettors identify situations where the betting line for a specific game is moving opposite the direction of the majority of public bets.